Brazilian Non-GMO Soybean Outlook – 2025
Non-GMO Exports and Seed Shortage
Despite Brazil’s record-breaking soybean production in 2025 – estimated at 169 million tonnes by the USDA- non-GMO soybean output remains critically low. The 2024/25 non-GMO harvest is projected to be around 1.5 million tonnes, representing an all-time low for this sector.
International demand continues, particularly from Germany and Norway. However, a shortage of certified non-GMO seeds is significantly limiting Brazil’s ability to increase exports. A key factor contributing to this imbalance is the timing mismatch in procurement: most European buyers place their orders after October. By this time, Brazil’s planting season is already underway, making it impossible to adjust production plans.
To effectively align with European demand, particularly with regard to traceability and deforestation-free requirements, Brazilian farmers must receive purchase commitments by the end of April. This early commitment is essential to secure certified seeds, plan segregated logistics, and ensure compliance with export standards.
Similar constraints are expected for the 2026 harvest, as seed production is again anticipated to fall short of demand. This pressure could increase if concerns about India’s non-GMO supply materialise. India is expected to export nearly 450,000 tonnes of non-GMO HiPro soymeal by 2025. However, as Indian production relies almost entirely on smallholders, many of them struggle to meet the international requirements for traceability and deforestation-free products, particularly the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). If India fails to meet these standards, Brazil could face an additional demand of up to 500,000 tonnes, which would put further strain on the supply of seeds and export logistics.
The Soy Moratorium and Legal Challenges
The Soy and Corn Producers Association of Mato Grosso (Aprosoja-MT) has taken legal action against major global grain trading companies regarding the Soy Moratorium. In April 2025, Aprosoja-MT filed a collective civil lawsuit with the Mato Grosso Court of Justice, seeking R$1.1 billion in compensation for collective moral damages. The lawsuit targets 28 trading companies, including ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, and Cofco, as well as industry associations such as Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries) and Anec (National Association of Cereal Exporters).
In addition to the lawsuit, Aprosoja-MT has filed a complaint with Brazil’s antitrust authority, the Administrative Council for Economic Defence (CADE), alleging that the Moratorium fosters a purchasing cartel that harms compliant farmers.
Supreme Court Decision on Mato Grosso’s Law
On 30 April 2025, Flávio Dino, the Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), partially reversed his previous decision and reinstated the effects of Mato Grosso’s Law No. 12.709/2024. This state law prohibits the granting of tax incentives and public land donations to companies that participate in voluntary agreements such as the Soy Moratorium, which restricts the expansion of agriculture into areas that are not protected by specific environmental legislation.
Dino emphasised that, while companies are free to adhere to the Soy Moratorium, the state is under no obligation to provide benefits to those aligning with private agreements that impose stricter requirements than national legislation. He added that, although such instruments are beneficial, they do not have the power to influence public policy decisions.
The decision is scheduled to take effect on 1 January 2026, which allows time for dialogue between companies and public agencies. Until then, the STF’s plenary will continue to deliberate on the matter in order to reach a final judgement.
Since the introduction of the moratorium in 2006, it has been critical to preventing further deforestation in the Amazon. Through the implementation of an origin verification system, the soy moratorium helps prevent deforestation-related soy from entering the supply chain.
We believe that these harmful attempts pose an existential threat to the future of the Amazon biome, damaging Brazil’s reputation as a sustainable supplier of agricultural resources to the world.
CJ Selecta Sale to Bunge Cancelled
In October 2023, CJ CheilJedang Corp., South Korea’s largest food company, signed an agreement to sell a 66% stake in its Brazilian soybean processing subsidiary, CJ Selecta, to Bunge Global SA. However, on 25 April 2025, CJ CheilJedang announced the termination of the deal, citing uncertainty over whether the preconditions for the transaction could be met. The company exercised its contractual rights to prioritise operational stability by cancelling the agreement. Bunge also confirmed the termination of the deal, noting that the deadline had expired without the necessary regulatory approvals being obtained.
CJ Selecta, headquartered in Minas Gerais, Brazil, is a major exporter of soy protein concentrate (SPC), a key ingredient in animal feed. Since its acquisition by CJ CheilJedang in 2017, CJ Selecta has established itself as a leading player in the global non-GMO soybean market. Following the cancellation of the deal, CJ CheilJedang will retain ownership of CJ Selecta, and the two companies will continue to operate independently within the competitive international soybean sector. Meanwhile, Bunge is reportedly turning its attention to the upcoming auction of Imcopa’s assets.
Imcopa Asset Auction
The auction of Imcopa’s assets is scheduled for 3 July 2025. Imcopa is one of Brazil’s leading non-GMO soybean processing companies. The minimum asking price for the sale is set at R$1.7 billion, covering two industrial plants in the state of Paraná – Araucária (R$900 million) and Cambé (R$750 million) – as well as the soybean oil brand “Leve” (R$27 million). With over 60 years of history, Imcopa can crush 1.5 million tons of soybeans and produce 240,000 tons of SPC per year.
Interested parties may submit individual bids for each asset or a combined offer for all of them. The proceeds from the auction will be deposited in court and allocated to pay creditors, taxes, and labour-related obligations. Buyers will be exempt from environmental, tax, and legal liabilities relating to the acquired assets.
Non-GMO SPC Production Gains New Momentum
Following CJ Selecta’s decision to cancel the planned sale to Bunge, the company has resumed active engagement in forward contracts for the upcoming harvest. Shipments to the Scandinavian salmon aquaculture industry are expected to increase further, particularly given Imcopa’s imminent return to the market.
Meanwhile, Caramuru continues to expand its efforts in non-GMO soybean origination, supporting the development and broader distribution of certified non-GMO seed varieties.
Together, the three processors are poised to launch a new era of SPC production in Brazil. The Soy Protein Concentrate segment remains the primary driver of non-GMO soybean cultivation in the country, offering significantly higher margins compared to conventional high-protein soybean meal (HiPro) exports.
DLG’s Non-GMO Crushing in Argentina
DLG Group, one of Europe’s largest agricultural supply companies, has made a significant investment in the Argentine soy crushing facility Entre Ríos Crushing S.A. (ERCSA). This investment will ensure an annual import of up to 200,000 tonnes of segregated, deforestation-free soybeans to the Northern European market. The soybeans processed at ERCSA are also non-GMO, meeting demand in much of Northern Europe.
This move aligns with the upcoming EU regulation, which comes into effect on 1 January 2026, and requires importers to document deforestation-free value chains. By securing a stable supply of non-GMO, segregated soy, DLG aims to accommodate the new EU legislation and ensure transparency throughout the value chain from Argentinian soy farmers to Northern European livestock producers.
However, Argentina’s domestic production of non-GMO soybeans is insufficient to meet the full processing capacity of the plant. To ensure an adequate supply, DLG will most likely need to source non-GMO soybeans from neighbouring countries. Key regions include Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, which have well-established non-GMO production and direct access to Argentina via the Paraná-Paraguay waterway. Additionally, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina – connected by efficient road networks – are emerging as viable sources, as both states could transition to non-GMO soybean cultivation. Certified seed availability and favourable logistics position these southern Brazilian states as strategic supply partners for DLG’s operations in Entre Ríos.
Japanese Demand for Non-GMO Soybeans
Japanese trading companies are actively sourcing food-grade, non-GMO soybeans from Brazil to meet domestic demand for soy-based foods such as tofu, miso, natto, and soy milk. Given that Japan only produces 3–7% of the soybeans it needs domestically, it is essential to secure high-quality, non-GMO soybeans from reliable international suppliers.
Tariff measures implemented by President Donald Trump’s administration have had a significant impact on U.S. agricultural exports to Japan. While Japan has not imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, the broader trade tensions and associated uncertainties have affected trade dynamics. Japanese importers have increasingly explored alternative sources of agricultural commodities, turning to countries such as Brazil and Argentina. This shift aims to mitigate risks associated with potential trade disruptions and to secure more stable supply chains. U.S. exporters have struggled to find affordable shipping options, partly due to new fees on China-linked vessels, which have increased freight costs and reduced the use of U.S. ports.
Summary
Demand for non-GM soybeans remains strong, driven by countries such as Germany and Norway. The food industry and regulatory standards in these countries increasingly require high-quality, traceable, and deforestation-free raw materials. Within this market, Soy Protein Concentrate (SPC) remains the most profitable product, offering significantly higher margins than conventional HiPro soymeal and driving the economic growth of non-GMO soybean cultivation in Brazil.
In response, key processors have resumed active engagement with the non-GMO market. CJ Selecta has restarted forward contracting following the termination of its sale to Bunge. Imcopa is expected to resume operations after its scheduled July auction, while Caramuru is expanding its investments in certified seed development, farmer outreach, and logistics infrastructure to strengthen its dedicated supply chains.
Meanwhile, Japan has signalled a renewed interest in sourcing food-grade non-GMO soybeans from Brazil. This is partly motivated by ongoing uncertainty in U.S. trade and tariff policy. The crushing operation in Argentina may also push the demand for Brazilian non-GMO beans.
Despite these opportunities, the chronic shortage of certified non-GMO seeds remains a major constraint. The lack of communication and long-term planning between European procurement timelines and Brazil’s planting schedule increases the challenge: most European buyers place orders after October, by which time planting in Brazil is already underway, eliminating the possibility of adapting production volumes to late-season demand.
Legal and regulatory uncertainty further complicates the landscape. Lawsuits concerning the Soy Moratorium, political backlash against Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) compliance, and recent Supreme Court rulings impacting state incentives all contribute to a volatile policy environment. Given these challenges, it is becoming increasingly irrational and strategically short-sighted for certain Brazilian agribusinesses to portray the EUDR and similar ESG regulations as protectionist trade barriers. The reality is that the European Union imports nearly 15 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil every year, which accounts for approximately 50% of its total soybean supply. Rather than trying to block Brazilian exports, the EU depends on them. The real issue is not access, but alignment: Europe demands transparency and environmental responsibility, and Brazil is uniquely positioned to meet these demands -if its supply chain is willing to adapt.
Brazil has the opportunity to regain its position in the global non-GMO soybean market and turn sustainability and compliance into a lasting competitive advantage. This can be achieved by overcoming internal resistance, improving seed availability, and engaging with international buyers at an earlier stage.
To explore these insights further and stay up to date on the latest market developments and demands, we invite you to join us at the Non-GM Soy Conference on 4 November 2025 in Frankfurt. For more information and registration, please visit: www.nongmomarket.com