Non-GMO Soybean Update
A Market on Edge: Balancing Risk and Supply in the Non-GMO Soy Industry
The volatility that carried over from last year into the early months of 2025 has left the non-GMO soybean market on high alert. For Brazilian exporters, the lesson is clear: seed availability cannot has to be planned. Early planning and firm contractual commitments with farmers are required to secure export volumes.
The same applies to Europe’s protein industry. Contracts negotiated close to, or after, Brazil’s planting window (September–December) rarely secure sufficient supply. Even then, the price tends to be at the highest end of the price curve.
During the 2024/2025 crop cycle, several European importers waited to source soybeans from Brazil, resulting in final deals being closed at extremely high costs. This shortfall stemmed from delayed negotiations that left exporters in a constrained position. Without advance commitments, exporters were forced into the spot market, where unplanned purchases attracted steep premiums. Likewise, farmers, constrained by the absence of early contracts, acquired inputs under unfavourable conditions, further intensifying cost pressures across the supply chain.
To prevent a repeat of these impasses, exporters have entered into secure forward agreements with seed suppliers and farmers, particularly in states of Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, and Goiás, based on the expectation that demand will remain at least as strong as last year.
Crushing Projections for 2026
Major exporters in Brazil have secured sufficient volumes to operate at full non-GMO SPC capacity. Hipro’s planned stocks are projected to further increase these volumes, in bean equivalent, sourced from dedicated farmers.
“Over the past decade, Caramuru has invested significantly in developing non-GMO soybean varieties, broadening access to high-yielding seeds for our network of dedicated farmers,” says Marcus Thieme, Caramuru’s CEO. “As a result, seed availability at our origination base is expected to increase in 2026, ensuring sufficient supply to operate our full non-GMO SPC crushing capacity in Sorriso (MT) and also in São Simão (GO). This growth will also enable higher volumes of SPC and Hi-Pro soymeal deliveries to Caramuru’s international clients. Maintaining the equilibrium of non-GMO premiums will be crucial to ensuring the stability and longevity of this market”.
In addition to the volumes of soybeans required to meet the SPC demand, seed sales in the Cerrado indicate that at least another 500,000 tons of whole beans should be available next season from non-GMO origination areas, strategically located along key logistics corridors.
If demanded, key players can redirect these volumes towards the European protein industry to be crushed locally.
Luiz Fiorese, President of the Soja Livre Institute and CEO of Quati Seeds, adds:
“Based on our seed sales for the current cropping season, I estimate that no less than 400,000 hectares of non-GMO soybeans will be harvested in early 2026. As the country’s leading supplier of non-GMO soybean seeds, we have observed consistent growth in production across the main producing regions. Our preliminary assessments indicate that Mato Grosso will continue to lead non-GMO soybean production, with estimated volumes exceeding 1.2 million tons.”
In total, the most evident surfacing supplies linked to crushers may add up to a segregated volume of 1.5 million tons, representing a slight increase compared to 2024/25. However, these volumes remain contingent on demand expectations that are not yet fully secured. Buyers, as in previous cycles, continue to delay decisions- maintaining the unpredictability across the market.
If less-visible farm volumes are included, the total potential non-GMO soybean supply in Brazil could exceed 2 million tons in planted areas.
Lucas Marinho, Executive Coordinator at the Soja Livre Institute, confirms the upward trend in seed distribution:
“Our administration has recently taken office at the Institute, and we are currently working to consolidate projections for the upcoming crop. Based on discussions with our member farmers, we anticipate that the availability of non-GMO soybeans will exceed last year’s figures. A more accurate outlook will be available in the coming months as the harvest period approaches.”
Domestic Market Signals
Brazil’s internal demand for non-GMO is rising, particularly in the organic food sector. Companies such as Raiar (egg producer), Gebana (organic food supplier), and Korin (organic poultry and beef producer) are consolidating their position as reliable buyers and promoters of the non-GMO industry. Their expanding portfolios are becoming an increasingly important buffer and driver for Brazil’s non-GMO supply base. This is not primarily based on volume, but on their role in maintaining non-GMO production clusters. If demand increases, these clusters can quickly multiply, escalating their deliveries of non-GMO beans. Without these companies, establishing GMO-free soybean production from scratch would be more challenging.
Argentina gearing up to supply the non-GMO market:
Two plants in Argentina are structuring a debut in the non-GMO market. The Kumagro/Grobocopatel Group has acquired a processing facility for non-GMO soybeans, with a crushing capacity of 750,000 tons per year. The plant is expected to begin operations in the second half of 2026, with a gradual ramp-up towards full capacity.
Adrián Maulion, Comercial Director at Kumagro, explains:
“Kumagro has been fully committed to developing high-performance non-GMO seeds that are highly competitive with leading GMO varieties. With the acquisition of this crushing plant, we are now taking the next step of connecting our network of non-GMO farmers in Argentina directly to the European protein market.”
The DLG Group’s soy processing investment in Entre Ríos, Argentina — operated by ERCSA — will enable the annual export of up to 200,000 tonnes of non-GMO soy to the European market, according to the company’s website*, ensuring traceable sourcing and production free from deforestation risks.
These two initiatives strengthen Argentina’s position as a key and reliable supplier to Europe’s certified non-GMO soy market, aligning with the growing demand for deforestation-free and fully traceable supply chains under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
Preliminary estimates indicate that India’s non-GMO soybean output for the 2025/26 season may decrease by approximately 2 million tonnes compared to the previous harvest. This is due to monsoon-related irregularities affecting both yields and harvest timelines. This anticipated decline is likely to create a temporary imbalance in the global supply of non-GMO soybeans, therefore reinforcing the strategic relevance of sourcing from alternative origins.
In this context, Argentina’s growing production capacity may play a stabilising role, by providing European importers with a reliable origin meeting sustainability and traceability standards, in full alignment with EUDR due diligence protocols.
Regulatory Uncertainty and Traceability Challenges
The European Union has created uncertainty around the implementation of the Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Brazilian exporters had already started investing in advanced traceability systems to meet the regulation’s stringent requirements, particularly in demonstrating deforestation-free sourcing.
Adding to traceability concerns, non-GMO soybean flows will soon need to address the presence of New Genomic Techniques (NGTs). Within the EU, political divisions between the Commission, Council, and Parliament have blocked consensus on a new regulatory framework, meaning that current legislation still applies. As a result, NGTs remain legally classified as GMOs, requiring full labelling under EU rules.
Globally, the picture is even more fragmented. While the EU treats NGTs as GMOs, other soybean-exporting countries may classify them differently, increasing the risk of inconsistent labelling and traceability requirements across markets. For Brazil, this means that traceability systems designed to comply with the EUDR will also need to integrate NGT controls- ensuring that non-GMO supplies bound for Europe meet both deforestation-free and GMO labeling standards.
Price Pressures Over Regular Soybean Trading
Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season is projected to reach a record 180.92 million tons, up 5.3% from the previous harvest. This increase is largely due to an expected recovery in Rio Grande do Sul, where more consistent weather conditions should enable a full harvest even without area expansion. National acreage is set to grow modestly by 1.2%, to 48.21 million hectares, as high production costs and tighter financing continue to limit the adoption of new technology. Average yields are forecast to rise from 3,625 to 3,771 kilograms per hectare.
With this record crop, Brazil’s soybean exports in 2026 are projected at 108 million tons, compared to 105 million in 2025- an increase of 3%. Forecasts for 2025 were also revised upward by 1 million tons, reflecting China’s strong reliance on Brazilian supplies amid uncertainty in China–U.S. trade relations and sustained shipping line-ups. Domestically, soybean crushing is projected at 59.5 million tons in 2026 (vs. 59 million previously), while for 2025 the figure is now 58 million, up from the earlier 57 million estimate.
Despite the favourable production outlook, forward sales of the 2025/26 crop remain sluggish. To date, only 20.5% of the expected output (37.06 million tons) had been contracted by early October, compared to 24.8% at the same time last year and a historical average of 29.2%.
The combination of record supply and slower commercialisation points to a bearish price scenario, which will further tighten margins for soybean farmers. This pressure is compounded by rising input costs, as fertiliser prices are climbing sharply in 2025 and eroding profitability despite higher production potential.
Brazil’s fertiliser imports reached a record 4.79 million tons in July 2025, up 15.6% from June and 7.1% from July 2024. At the same time, CIF prices surged: NP compounds averaged US$570.87/ton, urea US$427.37/ton, while MAP and KCl also posted sharp monthly gains. Since the beginning of 2025, the price of KCl has risen by 24%, MAP has climbed to nearly US$717.50/ton, and the price of urea jumped by 9% in April before stabilising at higher levels. This combination of record import demand and rising global prices highlights the mounting cost pressures facing Brazilian farmers just ahead of the 2025/26 planting season.
Non-GMO Market Prices
According to Copagril**, soybean prices in September 2025 ranged between R$118 and R$120 per 60-kg bag, compared to R$122–127 in the same period of 2024.
Converted into Brazilian terms, this premium represents roughly an 18% increase per bag over regular soybean prices, reinforcing the economic incentive for farmers and crushers to remain active in certified non-GMO supply chains.
Nevertheless, timing remains critical. The longer buyers wait to close deals, the higher their costs will be. Contracts for future deliveries linked to inputs financed before planting will rise in price as input costs increase. Meanwhile, unplanned segregated logistics will add further pressure, particularly given expectations of another record soybean crop in Brazil.
Global Non-GMO Soybean Outlook
- Brazil: Non-GMO planting could reach close to 2 million tons, but exports may remain at a similar level to last year, unless importers engage earlier.
- India: Output is projected at 10.7 million tons for 2025/26, which is 12% lower than last year’s record of 12.58 million. This is due to lower acreage, erratic rainfall, and a shift towards rice, sugarcane, and corn production. This contraction will reduce India’s capacity to meet non-GMO demand.
- European Union: Soybean area is expected to decline by 5–10% in 2025, to around 1.03 million hectares, following poor yields and seed shortages. Improved productivity could stabalise volumes, but overall production remains limited. Europe will therefore remain heavily dependent on imports.
If European importers do not adapt their trading patterns to provide earlier commitments, the volume of non-GMO supplies risks being further reduced. Over time, this recurring uncertainty could push more retailers to drop non-GMO requirements, perceiving them as unsustainable.
However, this challenge also presents an opportunity. By engaging in timely contracting and supporting structured supply programmes, European buyers can stabilise flows, secure reliable access, and maintain differentiation in markets where sustainability and transparency are increasingly valued. Taking action early is essential to prevent the erosion of the non-GMO segment and to transform it into a long-term competitive advantage.
References: